Signs From Earth

Energy Sprawl: Renewables' Achilles Heel

Corn ethanol and wind are two renewable energy sources being pursued in the United States. A research paper on "Energy Sprawl" released in August 2009 indicates that energy efficiency is as important a strategy in energy policy as pursuing land-intensive renewable energy sources like biofuels. Photo: brooklyn/flickr

A key challenge for renewable energy like biofuels, solar, and wind becomes the large amount of land needed to produce electricity and liquid fuels at large scale.

Fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas are energy dense because they contain concentrated ancient sunlight. Created from carbon-rich plant residues laid down millions of years ago, fossil fuels carry via those plants the energy of millions of years of sunlight densely packed into energy-rich rocks, liquid, and gas. 

On the other hand, renewables depend on current sunlight -- today’s sun and wind, this year’s growing season -- to produce their power. Consequently the energy density of renewables is much lower than fossil fuels.

Groundwater Disappearing in Northern India

Map showing depletion of groundwater in northern India. The water table in northern regions, in red, is dropping rapidly due to irrigation, according to new research.. Groundwater supplies are increasing in the blue areas due to above-average rainfall. Image: Velicogna/UC Irvine

New research published in the journals Nature and Geophysical Research Letters based on satellite studies indicate that groundwater in northern India is being severely depleted by heavy pumping for agriculture. Like loss of fish in the sea from overfishing, groundwater loss also is a hidden crisis, a tragedy of the commons. 

Groundwater serves as a primary source of freshwater in many parts of the world, and some regions are becoming heavily dependent on it. As a result, groundwater supplies are being depleted as we pump water out faster than aquifers replenish. This begins to create social unrest.

Elder More: In Decade More Will Be Over Age 65 Than Under 5

Population Pyramids from a new U.S. Census Bureau Report show proportion of age groups worldwide from 1960, 2000, and 2040. The bottom graph thows that by 2040 the proportion of those age 65 and over will double.

A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that in three decades the number of people age 65 or over will triple, that there will be more of us over 65 than under 5 in just 10 years. Implications are pondered by Danielle Kuczynski and Rachel Nugent at the Center for Global Development in "Will You Still Need Me, Will You Still Feed Me?" 

As we get older more of us in need of care and support, with fewer young, by proportion, to do that caring. What does it mean when we have more elderly and fewer young as a proportion of the whole world? Who teaches, who attends school, joins the armies and the police, builds the buildings and roads, and above all pays the taxes that the elderly depend on for government pensions?

Water Cycle Atlas: Crystal Ball for Water's Future

Researchers from Australian National University have released a new atlas of the world's water cycle. 

An Atlas of the Global Water Cycle is freely available as an 11MB downloadable PDF file, as single chapters, or as a print-on-demand order.

The atlas is based on models of future precipitation patterns prepared for the 2007 IPCC AR4 report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. By using the projections from the IPCC, the atlas visualizes on maps and tables the current and expected measures of rainfall, evaporation, and runoff across the earth.

Publisher's book description: "What do climate models predict for the rainfall where you live? What about evaporation or runoff? Should your local community consider constructing new dams or do the existing water storages appear adequate? What about the availability of water for irrigation farming? Do the predictions differ between different climate models or do all the models basically predict the same changes in water availability where you live?

Climate Change vs. National Security

 A coal fired power plant in Germany. Action against causes of climate change is tied to significant reduction in world use of fossil fuels. Photo: davipt/flickr

Slowly the idea seeps into major media mindset that climate change presents challenges far beyond polar bears and melting ice, that political stability and security of nations also are at risk. As has been discussed here and elsewhere, carbon emissions affect how the atmosphere works, and this in turn impacts stability and security of food and water supplies, and eventually survivability of societies.

The question remains whether these concerns linking continued use of fossil fuels and their impact on global climate will make a meaningful difference in the views and actions of policymakers and the public. 

John Broder reports in an August 9 New York Times article, "Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security,"  that climate change impacts in other nations, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia, could demand an American humanitarian or military response.

“The changing global climate will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, military and intelligence analysts say.

50 Years of Shrinking Glaciers in Alaska, Pacific Northwest

There Goes the Neighborhood: South Cascade Glacier in Washington State has shrunk considerably since observations began in 1928. Photos: USGS. 

The U.S. Geological Survey has released a half-century study of glaciers in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. To no one's surprise they are shrinking. 

The USGS report documents changes in the South Cascade Glacier in Washington, and the Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in Alaska. The report says the rate of ice loss, or mass balance, has increased in the last 15 years. The USGS calls these three glaciers "benchmark glaciers." 

Tasmania in Hot Water

Winter is a time when temperatures cool down, apparently not so much this winter in the ocean waters off Tasmania. This 15-day composite thermal satellite image showing the Leeuwin Current around Tasmania, the southern hemisphere island southeast of Australia, shows winter sea surface temperatures running at record levels, up to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F.) above normal for this time of year. Scientists at CSIRO in Australia say this is due to changes in ocean currents north of Australia.

What Prospect to Limit Carbon Emissions?

Global Carbon Emissions by Country in 2000: With about four percent of world population, the United States produces a quarter of the planet's heat-trapping carbon emissions. All land areas in map equal 100 percent. In this cartogram larger country size means more carbon emissions as a percentage of total emissions. From worldmapper.org  

Reports this week in Politico and the New York Times indicate prospects are dimming that climate legislation will come out of the U.S. Congress this year. If so, what chance for global agreement in December when negotiators and thousands of climate groupies burn all that carbon to fly to Copenhagen for the big international climate meeting? After all, this COP-15 summit is being billed as the crucial conference to cooperate and agree on common goals to limit planet-warming carbon pollution.

The United States produces the most carbon pollution per person, and until recently led the world in total carbon emissions. So unless the US arrives in Copenhagen with a firm commitment to lead by example, why would other nations, especially China and India, bother to change their ways? After all we burned all that coal, oil, and natural gas to develop our materially rich and highly mobile way of life, who are we to tell developing nations they can't aspire to the same living standards?