Signs From Earth

Report: Climate change will cost a billion people their homes (via @guardianeco)

Flood, Nashville, Tennessee, May 2, 2010. Photo from Creative Commons by Mike_tn/flickr

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/nov/28/cancun-climate-summit-weather

"British scientists...warn Cancun summit that entire nations could be flooded"

Robin McKie, The Observer on Sunday: "Devastating changes to sea levels, rainfall, water supplies, weather systems and crop yields are increasingly likely before the end of the century, scientists (warned Monday.).

A special report, ...released at the start of climate negotiations in Cancun, Mexico, (revealed) that up to a billion people face losing their homes in the next 90 years because of failures to agree curbs on carbon emissions.

Up to three billion people could lose access to clean water supplies because global temperatures cannot now be stopped from rising by 4C.

"The main message is that the closer we get to a four-degree rise, the harder it will be to deal with the consequences," said Dr Mark New, a climate expert at Oxford University, who organised a recent conference entitled "Four Degrees and Beyond" on behalf of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. ....The papers from the meeting (were) published to coincide with the start of the Cancun climate talks...."

See: Assessing consequences of a 4+ degree C. global temperature rise (via @RoyalSociety @Tyndall Centre)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/global-warming-potential-implications-for-4-d

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Assessing consequences of a 4+ degrees C. global temperature rise (via @RoyalSociety @TyndallCentre)

Lake Hume Australia, 2007. Photo from Creative Commons by Tim Keegan/flickr

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934.toc

The January 13, 2011 issue of the Philosophical Transactions A from the Royal Society: (open access)

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees (C.) and its implications

From Preface: "The idea of an international symposium focused on ‘Four degrees and beyond’ germinated in late 2008 after discussions with colleagues who were concerned that there was a large gap between the emerging policy target of keeping global warming below two degrees and some of the emissions-reduction scenarios that were being proposed in both the academic and policy literature. ...

"...the Four degrees and beyond conference took place in September 2009, where we asked participants to specifically address the questions of (i) how probable a warming of four degrees or higher might be, (ii) what the consequences of such a warming might be for ecosystems and society, (iii) how to adapt to such large changes, and (iv) how to keep the risk of high-end climate change as low as possible.

"The papers in this Theme Issue were written by participants in the Four degrees conference....as we go to press with the Theme Issue a year on from the conference, the results of the research presented in its papers seem even more relevant than a year ago. We have no comprehensive climate-change ‘deal’, and Yvo de Boer, in his final remarks as head of the UNFCCC before stepping down in 2010, said that it could take up to 10 years for negotiations to deliver a robust and effective agreement..."...continues...

Produced in collaboration with: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/

"...The collection of papers by leading international scholars from the Tyndall Centre, Oxford University, the Met Office and overseas institutes, explores the likelihood of large climate changes of 4 degrees and the potential impacts of these changes. The research addresses the challenges involved in avoiding high levels of warming, as well as the challenges of adaptation should society fail to do so. It stems from the first academic conference to analyse 4 degrees and beyond, last year by the Tyndall Centre..."

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Food Security: Russia moves closer to importing grain (via @FT)

Harvested field, Russia, August 26, 2010. Photo from Creative Commons by man@che/flickr

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f361bbfa-fbee-11df-b7e9-00144feab49a.html#ixzz16jLR8Lpt

Financial Times, Isabel Gorst: "Russia moved a step closer to importing grain on Monday as Vladimir Putin said he had appealed to foreign countries to reserve grain for supply to Russia.

"The Russian prime minister's statement was the first official admission that the country - in 2009 the world's third biggest wheat exporter - may need to import grain..."

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A Farmer's Almanac of Extreme Weather (via @nytimesopinion)

Flooded barn, Minnesota, Sept. 29, 2010. Photo from Creative Commons by Azure Bleu/flickr.

Minnesota farmer Jack Hedin describes the storms, floods, and crop rot that increasingly plague his 250-acre farm. Based on his personal experiences he believes climate change threatens his way of life, and the future of America's food supply.

Op-Ed: An Almanac of Extreme Weather

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/opinion/28hedin.html?ref=opinion

Jack Hedin: " The news from this Midwestern farm is not good. The past four years of heavy rains and flash flooding here in southern Minnesota have left me worried about the future of agriculture in America's grain belt. For some time computer models of climate change have been predicting just these kinds of weather patterns, but seeing them unfold on our farm has been harrowing nonetheless..."

"...The most recent onslaught was a pair of heavy storms in late September that dropped 8.2 inches of rain..."

"...The weather in our area has become demonstrably more hostile to agriculture, and all signs are that this trend will continue. Minnesota's state climatologist, Jim Zandlo, has concluded that no fewer than three "thousand-year rains" have occurred in the past seven years in our part of the state. And a University of Minnesota meteorologist, Mark Seeley, has found that summer storms in the region over the past two decades have been more intense and more geographically focused than at any time on record..."

Minnesota Climatology Working Group: Heavy Rainfall Sept. 22-23 2010

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff100924.htm

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Rising Sea: On Front Line, Norfolk Va. Tackles Rise in the Sea (via @nytimes)

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/science/earth/26norfolk.html?_r=1&hp

New York Times, Leslie Kaufman: "...As sea levels rise, tidal flooding is increasingly disrupting life here and all along the East Coast, a development many climate scientists link to global warming.

"But Norfolk is worse off. Situated just west of the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, it is bordered on three sides by water, including several rivers, like the Lafayette, that are actually long tidal streams that feed into the bay and eventually the ocean..."

Sea Level Rise Maps for Virginia

http://maps.risingsea.net/Virginia.html

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How to live with climate change (via @TheEconomist)

Source: Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat, by Battisti and Naylor, Science, 2009

http://www.economist.com/node/17575027

The Economist: "In the wake of the Copenhagen summit, there is a growing acceptance that the effort to avert serious climate change has run out of steam.

"Perhaps, after a period of respite and a few climatic disasters, it will get going again. It certainly should. But even if it does, the world is going to go on getting warmer for some time (see article).

The Economist: Adapting to climate change: Facing the consequences

http://www.economist.com/node/17572735

"Global action is not going to stop climate change. The world needs to look harder at how to live with it"

----

Also see: Hot Summers, Crop Losses Coming (re: Battisti and Naylor study)

http://ddimick.typepad.com/dennis_dimicks_blog/2009/01/report-hot-summers-cro...

Also see: Study: Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity and Unprecedented Seasonal Heat, by Battisti and Naylor, Science, 2009

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5911/240.abstract

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UN: World 'dangerously close' to food crisis as grain harvest drops 2% (via @nytimesgreen @johnrudolf)

Corn Harvest, Minnesota, Nov. 18, 2010. Photo from Creative Commons by shotbyjohn/flickr

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/world-dangerously-close-to-food-crisis-u-n-says/?hp

John Collins Rudolf: "Global grain production will tumble by 63 million metric tons this year, or 2 percent over all, mainly because of weather-related calamities like the Russian heat wave and the floods in Pakistan, the United Nations estimates in its most recent report on the world food supply. The United Nations had previously projected that grain yields would grow 1.2 percent this year.

"The fall in production puts the world "dangerously close" to a new food crisis, Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said at a news conference last week..."

UN FAO: Food Outlook report

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/47733/icode/

also see: The Coming Food Crisis (via @FP_Magazine)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/the-coming-food-crisis-via-fpmagazine

also see: Food Security: We face a "GAP"; Major Agricultural Productivity Boost Needed (via @scienceinsider)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/food-security-we-face-a-gap-major-agricultura

also see: On KCRW's To the Point: "Our Unsustainable Table: Another Global Food crisis?" (via @tothepoint_kcrw)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/on-kcrws-to-the-point-our-unsustainable-table

also see: "Americans have been disinvesting in agricultural research for three decades..." (via @scienceprogress)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/americans-have-been-disinvesting-in-agricultu

also see: "100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture (via @earthscan)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/100-questions-of-importance-to-the-future-of

also see: Food price fears as US warns on crop yields (via @FT)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/food-price-fears-as-us-warns-on-crop-yields-v

also see: Food Security: One eve of summit FAO says agriculture needs to become "climate-smart" (via @faonews)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/food-security-fao-says-agriculture-needs-to-b

also see: Food Security: Global crisis forecast as food prices reach record highs (via @guardianeco)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/food-security-global-crisis-forecast-as-food

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Fen Montaigne on Antarctica's Meltdown (via @YaleE360 @fenmontaigne)

Penguin, Antarctica, 2009. Photo from Creative Commons by Storm Petril1/flickr

The Warming of Antarctica: A Citadel of Ice Begins to Melt, by Fen Montaigne: Yale Environment 360

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_warming_of_antarctica_a_citadel_of_ice_begins_to_melt_/2342/

Fen Montaigne: "...The question now, as humanity pours greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at an accelerating rate, is not whether Antarctica will begin to warm in earnest, but how rapidly. The melting of Antarctica’s northernmost region — the Antarctic Peninsula — is already well underway, representing the first breach in an enormous citadel of cold that holds 90 percent of the world’s ice...."

By Fen Montaigne: Fraser's Penguins: A Journey to the Future of Antarctica

http://fraserspenguins.com/

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"Dustbowlification": Joe Romm's top 10 climate science developments in 2010 (via @scienceprogress)

Science Progress: "Dust-Bowlification" may be the impact of human-caused climate change that hits the most people by mid-century, as the figure above suggests ("a reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought")."

Science Progress: "A Stunning Year in Climate Science Reveals that Human Civilization is On the Precipice"

http://www.scienceprogress.org/2010/11/a-stunning-year-in-climate-science-reveals-that-human-civilization-is-on-the-precipice/

Joe Romm: "...for those interested in the real climate science story of the past year, let's review a couple dozen studies of the most important findings.  Any one of these would be cause for action -- and combined they vindicate the final sentence of Elizabeth Kolbert's  Field Notes from a Catastrophe:  "It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing."..."

Among the studies Romm details in his top 10: loss of ocean phytoplankton, East Siberian Arctic ice shelf methane release, NCAR study (image above) on multiple expanding droughts or "Dustbowlification," ocean acidification trends, rising seas, expanding species extinctions, drought-caused plant growth declines, increased soil release of CO2, and projections and livability for future temperature trends.

Romm, a physicist and former assistant secretary of energy, is editor of Climate Progress.

http://climateprogress.org/about/

Elizabeth Kolbert: Field Notes from a Catastrophe

http://www.bloomsburyusa.com/books/catalog/field_notes_from_a_catastrophe_pb_307

also see: NCAR Study: Dry Times Ahead (via @atmosnews @wileyscience @NSF)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/study-dry-times-ahead-via-atmosnews-wileyscie

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"...Americans have been disinvesting in agricultural research for...three decades..." (via @scienceprogress)

Discussion of perennial cereal grains research, The Land Institute, Salina, Kansas. Photo ©2004, Dennis R. Dimick

Science Progress: Is Our Agricultural Technology Innovation System Up to 21st Century Challenges?

http://www.scienceprogress.org/2010/11/agricultural-innovation-21st-century-challenges/

Paul Thompson, Michigan State University: "...while agricultural innovations have made it possible for 6 billion humans to live comfortably on the same land that once supported only 1.5 billion, many challenges remain to ensuring our global food system continues to support our society in a sustainable way. 

"Yet despite these pressing challenges, Americans have been disinvesting in agricultural research for the last three decades. Our agricultural innovation engine has become too narrowly focused on piecemeal adjustments in plant and animal genetics, to the exclusion of potentially valuable research into alternative, low-input methods such as organic, no-till, and poly-crop agriculture. This leaves us in a dangerous position with too few options for the future...."

Paul Thompson is W.K. Kellogg Chair in Agricultural, Food and Community Ethics at Michigan State University...

http://cs3.msu.edu/people/profile/thompson-paul/

...and author of: "The Agrarian Vision: Sustainability and Environmental Ethics," University of Kentucky Press, 2010.

http://www.kentuckypress.com/live/title_detail.php?titleid=2439

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Food Security: Study shows diverse crops in Africa more productive than monocultures (PNAS)

Pigeonpeas and corn, Malawi. Photo from Creative Commons by Swathi_Sridharan/flickr

"Shrubby Crops can help fuel Africa's green revolution"

(link to pdf of full paper here) 

http://news.msu.edu/story/8632/&topic_id=2

Michigan State PR: "Crop diversification with shrubby legumes mixed with soybean and peanuts could be the key to sustaining the green revolution in Africa, according to a Michigan State University study.

"The study, which appears in the Nov. 22 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (abstract below), states that diversifying crops would boost production of nutrient-enriched grain by 12 percent to 23 percent, said Sieglinde Snapp, a crop and soil scientist at Michigan State University's Kellogg Biological Station who led the study.

"Malawi has been called the cradle of Africa's green revolution. Through its government subsidizing 90 percent of fertilizer and superior corn seed costs, Malawi has reaped substantial gains in productivity of calorie-rich food. The successful program has had some unintended consequences, though, such as reliance on starchy cereals, expensive fertilizer and depleted soils.

"Rotating corn with pigeonpea mixtures (a shrubby legume grown in tropical regions) keeps the soil from being stripped of nutrients while increasing nutrient-rich grain productivity. This sustained boost would enhance food and environmental security in Africa, Snapp said...."

Study: Biodiversity can support a greener revolution in Africa (PNAS)

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/11/15/1007199107.abstract

Abstract: "The Asian green revolution trebled grain yields through agrochemical intensification of monocultures. Associated environmental costs have subsequently emerged. A rapidly changing world necessitates sustainability principles be developed to reinvent these technologies and test them at scale. The need is particularly urgent in Africa, where ecosystems are degrading and crop yields have stagnated. An unprecedented opportunity to reverse this trend is unfolding in Malawi, where a 90% subsidy has ensured access to fertilization and improved maize seed, with substantive gains in productivity for millions of farmers. To test if economic and ecological sustainability could be improved, we preformed manipulative experimentation with crop diversity in a countrywide trial...and at adaptive, local scales through a decade of participatory research... Spatial and temporal treatments compared monoculture maize with legume-diversified maize that included annual and semiperennial (SP) growth habits in temporal and spatial combinations, including rotation, SP rotation, intercrop, and SP intercrop systems. Modest fertilizer intensification doubled grain yield compared with monoculture maize. Biodiversity improved ecosystem function further: SP rotation systems at half-fertilizer rates produced equivalent quantities of grain, on a more stable basis (yield variability reduced from 22% to 13%) compared with monoculture. Across sites, profitability and farmer preference matched: SP rotations provided twofold superior returns, whereas diversification of maize with annual legumes provided more modest returns. In this study, we provide evidence that in Africa, crop diversification can be effective at a countrywide scale, and that shrubby, grain legumes can enhance environmental and food security.

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On KCRW's To the Point: "Our Unsustainable Table: Another Global Food Crisis?" (via @tothepoint_kcrw)

http://www.kcrw.com/news/programs/tp/tp101123our_unsustainable_ta

To the Point on KCRW Radio: "Does the World Face Another Food Crisis?: Two years ago, a combination of natural events and economic conditions drove food prices so high that food riots erupted in many parts of the world. While the ravages of 2008 aren't yet over, this year, there's concern that the same thing may be happening again. 

"The UN says: Be Prepared. Drought has led Russia to ban wheat exports; America's corn harvest is down and climate change is helping to drive world prices higher. Meantime, farmers make more by using their land for sugar, cotton, soya and bio-fuels. Is industrialized agriculture at fault? What are the prospects of another global food crisis, and what are the chances of heading it off?..."

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What is Nature Worth? New Issue of Momentum Magazine (via @UMNIonE)

Part of cover of Fall 2010 issue of Momentum Magazine from University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment.

http://www.environment.umn.edu/momentum/issue/3.1f10/index.html

The new Fall 2010 issue of Momentum Magazine is out, an excellent effort from Jon Foley and his team at the Institute on the Environment (IonE) at The University of Minnesota. The new issue covers biodiversity. Previous issues covered population and consumption, polar regions, feeding the planet, sustainable communities, and life after oil, among others. A class act.

Cover Story: Banking on Biodiversity by Hannah Hoag

http://www.environment.umn.edu/momentum/issue/3.1f10/cover_biodiversity.html

Momentum Archives

http://www.environment.umn.edu/momentum/archives/index.html

Institute on the Environment at Facebook

http://www.facebook.com/UMNIonE

also see: Jon Foley: Conundrum: Is the Issue population growth or overconsumption? Yes. (via @UMNIonE @dbiello)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/conundrum-is-the-issue-population-growth-or-o

also see: We're Already Beyond "Boundaries for a Healthy Planet," by Jon Foley in @sciam

http://ddimick.posterous.com/were-already-beyond-boundaries-for-a-healthy

also see: Movie: The Big Question: Is Earth Past the Tipping Point? (via @UNMIonE)

http://ddimick.posterous.com/movie-the-big-question-is-earth-past-the-tipp

Download link: http://mediamill.cla.umn.edu/mediamill/download.php?file=64121.mov&

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Study: Climate change causing Earth's largest lakes to warm (via @theAGU @NASAJPL)

Lake Tahoe on the California/Nevada border in the Sierra Nevada Mountains was one of the key "validation" site for this study. Tahoe is the largest alpine lake in North America. Photo by NASA-JPL.

AGU: Geophysical Research Letters: Earth's Lakes Warming Due to Climate Change

 http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2010/2010-40.shtml

NASA JPL: NASA Study Find's Earth's Lakes are Warming

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2010-393

AGU and NASA JPL PR: "In the first comprehensive global survey of temperature trends in major lakes, researchers have determined that Earth's largest lakes have warmed during the past 25 years in response to climate change.

"Philipp Schneider and Simon Hook of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., used satellite data to measure the surface temperatures of 167 large lakes worldwide.

"They reported an average warming rate of 0.45 degrees Celsius (0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, with some lakes warming as much as 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. The warming trend was global, and the greatest increases were in the mid- to high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

"Our analysis provides a new, independent data source for assessing the impact of climate change over land around the world," said Schneider, lead author of the study that will be published on 24 November in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a publication of the American Geophysical Union...."

GRL: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/

"...The bodies studied were selected from a global database of lakes and wetlands based on size (typically at least 500 square kilometers - 193 square miles - or larger) or other unique characteristics of scientific merit. The selected lakes also had to have large surface areas located away from shorelines, so land influences did not interfere with the measurements. Satellite lake data were collected from the point farthest from any shoreline.

"The largest and most consistent area of warming was northern Europe. The warming trend was slightly weaker in southeastern Europe, around the Black and Caspian seas and Kazakhstan. The trends increased slightly farther east in Siberia, Mongolia and northern China.

"In North America, trends were slightly higher in the southwest United States than in the Great Lakes region. Warming was weaker in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results were consistent with the expected changes associated with global warming...."

Below: Global trends in seasonal nighttime lake surface temperatures, 1985-299. Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

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Dear #Apple: Please help save big wild cats...(@revkin @LeoDiCaprio @gatesfoundation)

Apple's Steve Jobs discusses the upcoming Mac OS X 10.7 "Lion" operating system. Photo from Creative Commons by jediduke/flickr

The actor, environmentalist, and philanthropist Leonardo DiCaprio has committed $1 million to a campaign to save tigers.

PR: The Leonardo Dicaprio Fund At CCF Commits $1 Million to WWF TO Save Tigers Now

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/11/prweb4824884.htm 

"As world leaders gather for a historic summit to save tigers from extinction, Leonardo DiCaprio today committed $1 million to World Wildlife Fund for urgent tiger conservation efforts through his Fund at the California Community Foundation. ..."

DiCaprio has already urged Apple Inc. to help in this cause, as reported by Andrew Revkin in his Dot Earth blog at the New York Times:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/dicaprio-presses-apple-to-aid-wild-tigers/

Revkin began asking in September whether Apple (and its CEO Steve Jobs) would be willing to make a small investment to help save the big cats. 

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/saving-wild-tigers-cheaply-with-apples-help/

Apple has used imagery and names of large cats for many years to identify its increasingly popular computer operating system: Cheetah, Puma, Tiger, Leopard, Snow Leopard, and soon, Lion. So far, no response from Apple.

During its last quarter profit report Apple Inc. indicated it had more than $25 billion in cash on hand. (link below)

Perhaps if the campaigners are unable to get support from Apple in this worthy cause, they might consider an appeal to Bill Gates. Microsoft's computer operating systems are not named after these increasingly endangered big cats, but Mr. Gates has come to realize the considerable value of giving back to the planet that gave him his $ billions. Thank you, Bill.

Bill's foundation can be reached at http://www.gatesfoundation.org/  and via twitter @gatesfoundation

Unfortunately the best contact address I can find for Apple is:  http://www.apple.com/contact/

Below: From Wikipedia: Logos/box-art of Mac OS X. From left to right: (Box 1) Mac OS X 10.0 (Cheetah)/10.1 (Puma) (Cheetah and Puma shared the same box art), (Box 2) 10.2 (Jaguar), (Box 3) 10.3 (Panther), (Box 4) 10.4 (Tiger), (Box 5) 10.5 (Leopard), (Box 6) 10.6 (Snow Leopard).

Apple: Key Statistics: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL

Disclosure: I own 40 shares of AAPL stock in a retirement account. The only computers I've ever owned have been built and sold by Apple, the first being an Apple IIc in 1984.

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