Signs From Earth

Climate Casualties: Drought pushes East Africa nomads to edge of extinction (via @ft) #COP15

Cattle killed by drought in Ethiopia, Sept. 2009. Photo Zeresenay Berhane Mehar, Oxfam International/flickr

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/61864352-e675-11de-98b1-00144feab49a.html

Barney Jopson: (http://www.journalisted.com/barney-jopson)

"...Nomadic pastoralists have trekked across the arid lands of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia and Somalia for thousands of years. But there are fears that the few million currently on the move could be the last generation and among the first mass casualties of climate change..."

"...Oxfam, an aid agency, says the drought in east Africa is the worst in a decade and that the frequency of severe droughts across the region has risen from once every 10 years to once every two or three..."

Oxfam: Millions Face Hunger as Drought Sweeps East Africa

http://www.oxfamamerica.org/articles/in-ethiopia-millions-face-hunger-as-drought-sweeps-east-africa

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

2009 in Top 10 Warmest years: New WMO report on global temperature trends #COP15

Global Surface Temperature Trend  : Result from three Global datasets: NOAA (NCDC Dataset) , NASA (GISS dataset) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK)  (HadCRUT3 dataset)

NYT on this: No slowdown of global warming, agency says 

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_869_en.html

"Geneva, 8 December 2009 (WMO) - The year 2009 is likely to rank in the top 10 warmest on record since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2009 (January-October) is currently estimated at 0.44*C +/- 0.11*C (0.79*F +/- 0.20*F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00*C/57.2*F. The current nominal ranking of 2009, which does not account for uncertainties in the annual averages, places it as the fifth-warmest year. The decade of the 2000s (2000-2009) was warmer than the decade spanning the 1990s (1990-1999), which in turn was warmer than the 1980s (1980-1989). More complete data for the remainder of the year 2009 will be analysed at the beginning of 2010 to update the current assessment. 

"This year above-normal temperatures were recorded in most parts of the continents. Only North America (United States and Canada) experienced conditions that were cooler than average. Given the current figures, large parts of southern Asia and central Africa are likely to have the warmest year on record....continues...

Full text as PDF:

Download now or preview on posterous

af3668ce-0d98-4828-a5f7-3c0462f24ebb.pdf (170 KB)

UN World Meteorologiical Organization: http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

Study estimates challenge in shifting world to "100% clean energy" by 2030 (via @eurekalert & @sciam)

Lillgrund wind farm with 48-turbines off coast of Sweden. Photo by Vattenfall/flickr 

Cover story of November 2009 issue of Scientific American, a preview now online.)

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030

"Shifting the world to 100 percent clean, renewable energy as early as 2030 -- here are the numbers"

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-10/su-stw101909.php

Eurekalert: "Wind, water and solar energy resources are sufficiently available to provide all the world's energy. Converting to electricity and hydrogen powered by these sources would reduce world power demand by 30 percent, thereby avoiding 13,000 coal power plants. Materials and costs are not limitations to these conversions, but politics may be, say Stanford and U.C. researchers who have mapped out a blueprint for powering the world..."

"...Most of the technology needed to shift the world from fossil fuel to clean, renewable energy already exists. Implementing that technology requires overcoming obstacles in planning and politics, but doing so could result in a 30 percent decrease in global power demand, say Stanford civil and environmental engineering Professor Mark Z. Jacobson and University of California-Davis researcher Mark Delucchi.

"To make clear the extent of those hurdles - and how they could be overcome - they have written an article that is the cover story in the November issue of Scientific American. In it, they present new research mapping out and evaluating a quantitative plan for powering the entire world on wind, water and solar energy, including an assessment of the materials needed and costs. And it will ultimately be cheaper than sticking with fossil fuel or going nuclear, they say..."

PDF of paper: Mark Z. Jacobson: Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security†

http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/PDF%20files/ReviewSolGW09.pdf

also at: http://www.rsc.org/ej/EE/2009/b809990c.pdf

"This paper reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, wildlife, resource availability, thermal pollution, water chemical pollution, nuclear proliferation, and undernutrition..."

=

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

Like PBS Frontline: Leveling Appalachia: Legacy of Mountaintop Removal Mining (via @yaleE360 and @mediastorm)

Samples Mine, Mountaintop Removal Mine, West Virginia. Panorama Photo: Dennis Dimick /flickr 

http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2198

Video Report at Yale Environment 360 Produced by Chad Stevens at MediaStorm:

"During the last two decades, mountaintop removal mining in Appalachia has destroyed or severely damaged more than a million acres of forest and buried nearly 2,000 miles of streams. Leveling Appalachia: The Legacy of Mountaintop Removal Mining, a video report produced by Yale Environment 360 in collaboration withMediaStorm, focuses on the environmental and social impacts of this practice and examines the long-term effects on the region's forests and waterways..."

Lasers Show Thinning at Edges of Big Ice Sheets

The British Antarctic Survey has been using laser beams to determine the thickness of ice in the big sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The scientists have found that the ice is thinning quickly along the coasts. This can be seen in red in the map above.

This report was published in the journal Nature, more info and links to the paper, pictures, maps, and PR releases are here: Space Lasers Show Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Aren't What They Used to Be.

Potential implications of melting from ice sheets are explored in a New York Times article on the loss of large sections of Vietnam's Mekong Delta from sea-level rise, and another in the Financial Times Sept. 23 on similar threats to Bangladesh, a low-lying delta region at the end of the Ganges River. A study in Nature Geoscience has explored the vulnerability of river deltas worldwide to sinking and sea rise.

Pictures Before and During: Red Sky Over Sydney

Residents of Sydney, Australia awoke today Sept. 23 to orange skies filled with dust. This image pair from jujuly25 at flickr also shows a clear-sky view from the same angle on a Sydney balcony a day ago. What a dusty difference a day makes.

The BBC reported that the dust storm is the result of years of drought in eastern parts of Australia. National Geographic published an in-depth story and pictures in April on the region's Murray-Darling basin and the long term drying from climate change in parts of Australia. These changes are increasingly seen as part of a larger pattern of shifts in rainfall in several regions.

At Earth Observatory, NASA has also posted a satellite image of the big dust storm, link here. 

Irrawaddy and Other River Deltas Are Sinking

The Delta of the Irrawaddy River in Burma is among those slowly sinking, according to new research published in the journal  Nature Geoscience. This satellite image from NASA Earth Observatory shows the low-lying land in southeast Asia created and built up by silt carried and deposited by the river. 

The research indicates that a variety of upstream activities, such as damming and upstream water diversions are starving the deltas of the silt they need to survive. These low-lying deltas are also vulnerable to storms such as Cyclone Nargis which hit the Irrawaddy Delta in 2008, and saltwater intrusion from sea level rise caused by melting of glaciers and icecaps as the atmosphere keeps warming.

2009 Arctic Ice Melt Compared to Earlier Years

The chart above from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows extent of ice melt in 2009 (light blue line) compared to earlier years. The greatest melt occurred in 2007 (dotted green line), and this year's melt is third most significant behind 2008 (dark blue line,) which was second. The 2005 melt is shown in solid light green. The Arctic ice appears to be in a new phase, with more significant melt in the past three years than the average for the period 1979-2000, which is show in gray in the upper part of the chart.

As reported by NSIDC, the minimum extent in 2009 is 24 percent below the 1979-2000 average minimum and 20 percent below the 1979-2008 average minimum. Extent is not the only measure, as younger, thinner ice dominates now, and it is more vulnerable to melting.

2009 Global Temperature Trends: January – August

 

The National Climatic Data Center has (finally) released global temperature trends data for the first eight months of 2009, and the red dots on the map show that most of the world keeps running a fever. According to records of combined land and sea temperature observations the period from January through August 2009 is the fifth warmest on record.

Specifically for August, NCDC reports that ocean temperatures worldwide for August are the warmest ever measured since record keeping began.

Those in the middle of the blue dot area on the map in North America or in the far southern ocean near Antarctica might be forgiven if they thought their local world was cooling, but one must keep the long term trend in mind and remember that the map clearly shows a lot more big red dots than big blue dots. 

That means the world was warmer than average, and in some places by quite a bit when you look at the many fat red dots over Mexico, Africa, China, India, Australia, and California. It should be noted that several of these regions have also been suffering droughts, and research shows that these continuing warming trends will most likely drive long-term water shortages.

This warming trend is useful to examine in connection with the chart below showing how 2009 compares to earlier years. All years since 1980 have been above the norm (red)  and the last time a year was below the norm (blue) was 1976. It is also useful to keep in mind that we have been seeing significant loss of Arctic sea ice, as the Arctic Ocean loss of ice in 2009 was the third most significant on record behind 2007 and 2008 according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 

Climate and Fire: The Blaze Last Time, and Next

Fires over southern California have burned before and will burn again. This wafting smoke over the Pacific Ocean came from 12 large fires burning in late October, 2007.  Photo: NASA Earth Observatory

Recent news reports about fires, whether in Greece or Los Angeles, have not explained their relationship to long-term climatic shifts underway. Why? Maybe the remaining reporters and editors aren't well-versed in the underlying science of climate change, or the science and environment writers have all been laid off to save money.

News stories reporting these disasters as isolated events, or caused by cigarette or lawnmowers, miss the point and do a disservice by failing to put them in context. Temperatures have been increasing in these regions, and rainfall has been declining long-term. Just as a lawnmower may be the flint, these underlying conditions provide the tinder, and explain the likelihood that as these fires have burned before, they will burn again.

These contextual links have been made for some time by scientists, but traditional news outlets apparently haven't been reading. When fires hit Athens a week or so ago, the only outlet that explicitly explained the link between fires and climate change was the new global trends reporting website GlobalPost. 

Energy Sprawl: Renewables' Achilles Heel

Corn ethanol and wind are two renewable energy sources being pursued in the United States. A research paper on "Energy Sprawl" released in August 2009 indicates that energy efficiency is as important a strategy in energy policy as pursuing land-intensive renewable energy sources like biofuels. Photo: brooklyn/flickr

A key challenge for renewable energy like biofuels, solar, and wind becomes the large amount of land needed to produce electricity and liquid fuels at large scale.

Fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas are energy dense because they contain concentrated ancient sunlight. Created from carbon-rich plant residues laid down millions of years ago, fossil fuels carry via those plants the energy of millions of years of sunlight densely packed into energy-rich rocks, liquid, and gas. 

On the other hand, renewables depend on current sunlight -- today’s sun and wind, this year’s growing season -- to produce their power. Consequently the energy density of renewables is much lower than fossil fuels.

Groundwater Disappearing in Northern India

Map showing depletion of groundwater in northern India. The water table in northern regions, in red, is dropping rapidly due to irrigation, according to new research.. Groundwater supplies are increasing in the blue areas due to above-average rainfall. Image: Velicogna/UC Irvine

New research published in the journals Nature and Geophysical Research Letters based on satellite studies indicate that groundwater in northern India is being severely depleted by heavy pumping for agriculture. Like loss of fish in the sea from overfishing, groundwater loss also is a hidden crisis, a tragedy of the commons. 

Groundwater serves as a primary source of freshwater in many parts of the world, and some regions are becoming heavily dependent on it. As a result, groundwater supplies are being depleted as we pump water out faster than aquifers replenish. This begins to create social unrest.

Water Cycle Atlas: Crystal Ball for Water's Future

Researchers from Australian National University have released a new atlas of the world's water cycle. 

An Atlas of the Global Water Cycle is freely available as an 11MB downloadable PDF file, as single chapters, or as a print-on-demand order.

The atlas is based on models of future precipitation patterns prepared for the 2007 IPCC AR4 report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. By using the projections from the IPCC, the atlas visualizes on maps and tables the current and expected measures of rainfall, evaporation, and runoff across the earth.

Publisher's book description: "What do climate models predict for the rainfall where you live? What about evaporation or runoff? Should your local community consider constructing new dams or do the existing water storages appear adequate? What about the availability of water for irrigation farming? Do the predictions differ between different climate models or do all the models basically predict the same changes in water availability where you live?

Climate Change vs. National Security

 A coal fired power plant in Germany. Action against causes of climate change is tied to significant reduction in world use of fossil fuels. Photo: davipt/flickr

Slowly the idea seeps into major media mindset that climate change presents challenges far beyond polar bears and melting ice, that political stability and security of nations also are at risk. As has been discussed here and elsewhere, carbon emissions affect how the atmosphere works, and this in turn impacts stability and security of food and water supplies, and eventually survivability of societies.

The question remains whether these concerns linking continued use of fossil fuels and their impact on global climate will make a meaningful difference in the views and actions of policymakers and the public. 

John Broder reports in an August 9 New York Times article, "Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security,"  that climate change impacts in other nations, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia, could demand an American humanitarian or military response.

“The changing global climate will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, military and intelligence analysts say.

50 Years of Shrinking Glaciers in Alaska, Pacific Northwest

There Goes the Neighborhood: South Cascade Glacier in Washington State has shrunk considerably since observations began in 1928. Photos: USGS. 

The U.S. Geological Survey has released a half-century study of glaciers in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. To no one's surprise they are shrinking. 

The USGS report documents changes in the South Cascade Glacier in Washington, and the Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in Alaska. The report says the rate of ice loss, or mass balance, has increased in the last 15 years. The USGS calls these three glaciers "benchmark glaciers."