Signs From Earth

Population Trends: Magic Number is 2.1: Go forth and multiply a lot less (via @TheEconomist)

Live chart here: http://tinyurl.com/yf75sko

Gapminder chart of children per woman as GDP per person increases (2007) 

Large Blue circle is India, large red is China, large yellow at right is United States.

Economist: "Fertility and living standards: Lower fertility is changing the world for the better"

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14743589

"Sometime in the next few years (if it hasn’t happened already) the world will reach a milestone: half of humanity will be having only enough children to replace itself. That is, the fertility rate of half the world will be 2.1 or below..."

Economist Opinion: Demography, growth, and the environment: 

Falling Fertility: Astonishing falls in fertility are bringing with them big benefits

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14744915

Study estimates challenge in shifting world to "100% clean energy" by 2030 (via @eurekalert & @sciam)

Lillgrund wind farm with 48-turbines off coast of Sweden. Photo by Vattenfall/flickr 

Cover story of November 2009 issue of Scientific American, a preview now online.)

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030

"Shifting the world to 100 percent clean, renewable energy as early as 2030 -- here are the numbers"

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-10/su-stw101909.php

Eurekalert: "Wind, water and solar energy resources are sufficiently available to provide all the world's energy. Converting to electricity and hydrogen powered by these sources would reduce world power demand by 30 percent, thereby avoiding 13,000 coal power plants. Materials and costs are not limitations to these conversions, but politics may be, say Stanford and U.C. researchers who have mapped out a blueprint for powering the world..."

"...Most of the technology needed to shift the world from fossil fuel to clean, renewable energy already exists. Implementing that technology requires overcoming obstacles in planning and politics, but doing so could result in a 30 percent decrease in global power demand, say Stanford civil and environmental engineering Professor Mark Z. Jacobson and University of California-Davis researcher Mark Delucchi.

"To make clear the extent of those hurdles - and how they could be overcome - they have written an article that is the cover story in the November issue of Scientific American. In it, they present new research mapping out and evaluating a quantitative plan for powering the entire world on wind, water and solar energy, including an assessment of the materials needed and costs. And it will ultimately be cheaper than sticking with fossil fuel or going nuclear, they say..."

PDF of paper: Mark Z. Jacobson: Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security†

http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/PDF%20files/ReviewSolGW09.pdf

also at: http://www.rsc.org/ej/EE/2009/b809990c.pdf

"This paper reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, wildlife, resource availability, thermal pollution, water chemical pollution, nuclear proliferation, and undernutrition..."

=

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

The Price We Pay for Energy is Not the Price We Pay: Report Tallies Hidden Energy Costs (via @jarsciencenews)

Coal Fired Power Plant at Cheshire Ohio, Photo by "Picture Taking Fool,"/flickr  

http://www.sciencenews.org/index/generic/activity/view/id/48586/title/Report_tallies_hidden_energy_costs

Janet Raloff: "The average retail cost of U.S. coal-fired electricity was 9 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2007 (the most recent year for which data are available). But there are health and environmental costs of that power that consumers don't pay, at least as part of their electric bill. According to a new report, accounting for those costs would double the true cost of shooting some electrons through the nation's power grid.

"As long as such costs remain hidden, they risk skewing policy and purchasing decisions. A new report released today by the National Research Council now attempts to compute and tally those hidden health and environmental costs associated with energy..." 

National Academies Press: 

Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12794

Link to FREE PDF of Executive Summary: 

http://www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi?record_id=12794&type=pdfxsum

"Modern civilization is heavily dependent on energy from sources such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Yet, despite energy's many benefits, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy also cause negative effects. Beneficial or negative effects that are not reflected in energy market prices are termed "external effects" by economists. In the absence of government intervention, external effects associated with energy production and use are generally not taken into account in decision making..."

National Research Council: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/NRC/index.htm

Dept. of Energy EIA: Electric Power Industry in Review 2007 

NYT: Fossil Fuels' Hidden Costs s in Billions, Report Says 

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

Journey to Aldo Leopold Shack, Baraboo, WI

Society of Environmental Journalists sunset journey to "The Shack," the farm close to the Wisconsin River near Baraboo, Wisconsin where conservationist Aldo Leopold was inspired to write his book "A Sand County Almanac." Saturday October 10, 2009. --Dennis Dimick

The Aldo Leopold shack at dusk.

Interior and kerosene lamps preserved as during the time Leopold lived there until his death in 1948.

Sandhill cranes at dusk over Aldo Leopold shack.

Wisconsin River Near Aldo Leopold shack, early evening.

Aldo Leopold Shack early evening.

The Aldo Leopold Shack, Baraboo, Wisconsin. Leopold's book "A Sand County Almanac" took form here.

Tallgrass prairie south of road from the Shack to Leopold Center. It was along this route that Leopold last traveled when he went to fight a fire on an adjacent farm. It was on this neighboring farm that Leopold died of a heart attack, and is where the Leopold Center now stands.

Posted via email from Signs From Earth Notes

Map: McDonald's Golden Glow in the United States

Stephen Von Worley has produced a golden glowing map (no arches visible) of McDonald's restaurants in the lower 48 United States. He has called this "The Contiguous United States, Visualized by Distance to the Nearest McDonald's," and writes about his inspiration at his blog Weather Sealed, under the heading "Where the Buffalo Roamed." 

"To gauge the creep of cookie-cutter commercialism, there’s no better barometer than McDonald’s – ubiquitous fast food chain and inaugural megacorporate colonizer of small towns nationwide," he writes.

Based on numbers from aggdata, Von Worley says more than 13,000 McDonald's are spread across the land, and 107 miles is the greatest distance or "McFarthest Spot" to a McD's. (I guess that means somewhere in the west a pair of McDonald's is 214 miles apart?) If you live in central Nevada, southeast Oregon, Idaho's Salmon River Wilderness, or northwestern South Dakota it will be a long ride for that burger fix.

For a reality check, see the film Food, Inc. If it hasn't played your town yet, already has, or (likely) never will, this important film will be out on DVD Nov. 3. See it to understand how the American food and farm landscape has been transformed by more than the ubiquitous presence of hamburger shops. Show Food Inc. to your friends. You may want to find that spot 107 miles away and stay there.

Pictures Before and During: Red Sky Over Sydney

Residents of Sydney, Australia awoke today Sept. 23 to orange skies filled with dust. This image pair from jujuly25 at flickr also shows a clear-sky view from the same angle on a Sydney balcony a day ago. What a dusty difference a day makes.

The BBC reported that the dust storm is the result of years of drought in eastern parts of Australia. National Geographic published an in-depth story and pictures in April on the region's Murray-Darling basin and the long term drying from climate change in parts of Australia. These changes are increasingly seen as part of a larger pattern of shifts in rainfall in several regions.

At Earth Observatory, NASA has also posted a satellite image of the big dust storm, link here. 

Irrawaddy and Other River Deltas Are Sinking

The Delta of the Irrawaddy River in Burma is among those slowly sinking, according to new research published in the journal  Nature Geoscience. This satellite image from NASA Earth Observatory shows the low-lying land in southeast Asia created and built up by silt carried and deposited by the river. 

The research indicates that a variety of upstream activities, such as damming and upstream water diversions are starving the deltas of the silt they need to survive. These low-lying deltas are also vulnerable to storms such as Cyclone Nargis which hit the Irrawaddy Delta in 2008, and saltwater intrusion from sea level rise caused by melting of glaciers and icecaps as the atmosphere keeps warming.

2009 Arctic Ice Melt Compared to Earlier Years

The chart above from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows extent of ice melt in 2009 (light blue line) compared to earlier years. The greatest melt occurred in 2007 (dotted green line), and this year's melt is third most significant behind 2008 (dark blue line,) which was second. The 2005 melt is shown in solid light green. The Arctic ice appears to be in a new phase, with more significant melt in the past three years than the average for the period 1979-2000, which is show in gray in the upper part of the chart.

As reported by NSIDC, the minimum extent in 2009 is 24 percent below the 1979-2000 average minimum and 20 percent below the 1979-2008 average minimum. Extent is not the only measure, as younger, thinner ice dominates now, and it is more vulnerable to melting.

Human Footprint: Aral Sea Keeps Shrinking

 Central Asia's Aral Sea has been drained of its lifeblood water to slake our thirst. Photo: NASA

Formerly the world's fourth largest lake, the Aral Sea in central Asia has become a dustbowl of its former self after more than 40 years of irrigation that has sucked water from the rivers that feed it. These upstream diversions irrigate cotton and other farms in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan in central Asia, arid countries surrounding the Aral Sea that use more water per person than any other nations on earth. 

The August 2009 image above from NASA Earth Observatory highlights the Aral Sea's former shorelines and the few areas on its western and northern shores where water remains. A 10-year sequence of the lake's deteriorating condition also has been posted.

Shoreline of desiccated Aral Sea in Uzbekistan, Sept. 5, 2009. Photo: kvitlauk/flickr

Energy Sprawl: Renewables' Achilles Heel

Corn ethanol and wind are two renewable energy sources being pursued in the United States. A research paper on "Energy Sprawl" released in August 2009 indicates that energy efficiency is as important a strategy in energy policy as pursuing land-intensive renewable energy sources like biofuels. Photo: brooklyn/flickr

A key challenge for renewable energy like biofuels, solar, and wind becomes the large amount of land needed to produce electricity and liquid fuels at large scale.

Fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas are energy dense because they contain concentrated ancient sunlight. Created from carbon-rich plant residues laid down millions of years ago, fossil fuels carry via those plants the energy of millions of years of sunlight densely packed into energy-rich rocks, liquid, and gas. 

On the other hand, renewables depend on current sunlight -- today’s sun and wind, this year’s growing season -- to produce their power. Consequently the energy density of renewables is much lower than fossil fuels.

Groundwater Disappearing in Northern India

Map showing depletion of groundwater in northern India. The water table in northern regions, in red, is dropping rapidly due to irrigation, according to new research.. Groundwater supplies are increasing in the blue areas due to above-average rainfall. Image: Velicogna/UC Irvine

New research published in the journals Nature and Geophysical Research Letters based on satellite studies indicate that groundwater in northern India is being severely depleted by heavy pumping for agriculture. Like loss of fish in the sea from overfishing, groundwater loss also is a hidden crisis, a tragedy of the commons. 

Groundwater serves as a primary source of freshwater in many parts of the world, and some regions are becoming heavily dependent on it. As a result, groundwater supplies are being depleted as we pump water out faster than aquifers replenish. This begins to create social unrest.

Water Cycle Atlas: Crystal Ball for Water's Future

Researchers from Australian National University have released a new atlas of the world's water cycle. 

An Atlas of the Global Water Cycle is freely available as an 11MB downloadable PDF file, as single chapters, or as a print-on-demand order.

The atlas is based on models of future precipitation patterns prepared for the 2007 IPCC AR4 report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. By using the projections from the IPCC, the atlas visualizes on maps and tables the current and expected measures of rainfall, evaporation, and runoff across the earth.

Publisher's book description: "What do climate models predict for the rainfall where you live? What about evaporation or runoff? Should your local community consider constructing new dams or do the existing water storages appear adequate? What about the availability of water for irrigation farming? Do the predictions differ between different climate models or do all the models basically predict the same changes in water availability where you live?

What Prospect to Limit Carbon Emissions?

Global Carbon Emissions by Country in 2000: With about four percent of world population, the United States produces a quarter of the planet's heat-trapping carbon emissions. All land areas in map equal 100 percent. In this cartogram larger country size means more carbon emissions as a percentage of total emissions. From worldmapper.org  

Reports this week in Politico and the New York Times indicate prospects are dimming that climate legislation will come out of the U.S. Congress this year. If so, what chance for global agreement in December when negotiators and thousands of climate groupies burn all that carbon to fly to Copenhagen for the big international climate meeting? After all, this COP-15 summit is being billed as the crucial conference to cooperate and agree on common goals to limit planet-warming carbon pollution.

The United States produces the most carbon pollution per person, and until recently led the world in total carbon emissions. So unless the US arrives in Copenhagen with a firm commitment to lead by example, why would other nations, especially China and India, bother to change their ways? After all we burned all that coal, oil, and natural gas to develop our materially rich and highly mobile way of life, who are we to tell developing nations they can't aspire to the same living standards?

Human Footprint: Carajás Iron Mine, Brazil

I've been a fan of satellite pictures ever since seeing Landsat images of deserts worldwide when working on a book about deserts of the world 28 years ago. This picture of an iron mine in Brazil is one of the latest images from satellites that look at our earth.

NASA Earth Observatory and other sources regularly post pictures showing the visible hand of man on the land, and this picture initiates an ongoing irregular series of images called "Human Footprint," showing the visible effects we are having on our home planet.

Taken July 26, 2009, this picture from NASA Earth Observatory shows the Carajas Iron Mine in Brazil. The mine exists today because some steel company officials stopped their helicopter on a mountaintop to refuel and saw iron ore on the ground. Four decades later this is what remains.

Public Wary of Carbon Capture Projects for Coal

 

The Sleipner project in Norway is the largest carbon capture and storage project in the world. Each year it sequesters underground about a million tons of carbon dioxide, which equals about 25 percent of the CO2 output from a single coal-fired power plant. The United States has about 600 coal plants.

A couple of reports this week indicate that in Europe the campaign for "clean coal" has a lot of work ahead on the public relations front. The idea that coal can burn "cleanly" for power generation depends on our being able to capture and store deep underground -- without leaking out for centuries -- the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power plant smokestacks. The technology to achieve deep carbon storage is called carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS.

A July 29 report in the Guardian newspaper of London, "Not under our backyards, say Germans, in blow to CO2 plans," says that a CCS demonstration project in Spremberg operated by Swedish power utility Vattenfall has been venting CO2 straight into the atmosphere because the firm cannot secure a permit from German authorities to begin test injections of CO2 into underground storage.

The Financial Times reports July 30 in "Public Wary of Carbon Capture" that a proposed CCS underground storage site in the Netherlands is also getting the cold shoulder from locals, and that the Dutch government and energy company Shell have opened a PR office in Barendrecht in hopes of improving public attitudes about this largely untested technology.