Signs From Earth

Irrawaddy and Other River Deltas Are Sinking

The Delta of the Irrawaddy River in Burma is among those slowly sinking, according to new research published in the journal  Nature Geoscience. This satellite image from NASA Earth Observatory shows the low-lying land in southeast Asia created and built up by silt carried and deposited by the river. 

The research indicates that a variety of upstream activities, such as damming and upstream water diversions are starving the deltas of the silt they need to survive. These low-lying deltas are also vulnerable to storms such as Cyclone Nargis which hit the Irrawaddy Delta in 2008, and saltwater intrusion from sea level rise caused by melting of glaciers and icecaps as the atmosphere keeps warming.

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Trend Near 2007 Level

The graph below from July 28, 2009 and released today from National Snow and Ice Data Center shows Arctic Ocean ice melt trend (blue line) close to 2007 levels (green line), which were a record. 

Last year's melt was the second most severe, and on a week ago the NSIDC reported that this season's ice melt was trending slightly ahead of 2008 levels. See Signs From Earth: Global Temperature Trends for First Half 2009 and Arctic Melt Season in "High Gear."

The summer melt season runs for about another month. The graph below and a more extensive map (above) of sea ice extent and trends are updated daily at the NSIDC website. The orange line on the July 28 map above shows average extent of sea ice for the period from 1979-2000, which is also the top line on the trend graph below.

Flash! Secret Ice Images Revealed (As Reported Here 10 Days Ago)

 

For what it is worth, the breathless July 26 headline in the London Observer, "Revealed: The Secret evidence of global warming Bush tried to hide," seems over the top, and late to the game. 

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One wonders where the major news outlets in the United States have been on this story, which was written about right here at Signs From Earth on July 16 after Jenny Lauren Lee at Science News in Washington posted an item there on July 15. 

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Details and pictures here: Secret Pictures of Arctic Ice Released. Now that the "major" news outlets are picking up this story, we can now believe that it really happened. Thank goodness.

Sea Ice Swirls along Baffin Island, Canada

In this July 11, 2009 satellite image from NASA Earth Observatory, the delicate swirls along the southeast coast of Baffin Island are floating ice moving with the ocean currents. Eddies along the east coast of this large island between North America and Greenland have fashioned the floating ice into interlocking swirls. 

Arctic ice is nearing the peak of its melt season, and the National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that overall ice loss this summer is on par or greater than the 2008 melt, which was the second greatest melt season on record behind 2007. Earlier this month researchers reported that Arctic ice is also younger and thinner.

Global Temperature Trends for First Half of 2009

A page on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center website called "Climate of 2009-June in Historical Perspective" has buried within it this map above showing global temperature trends for the first half of 2009. 

The red dots show warmer than normal, the blue dots show cooler. Except for an area in Canada and a few places in the oceans, the color is all red. The size of dots matters: Large red dots indicate temperature "anomalies" from 4 to 5 degrees C (7.2 to 9 degrees F) higher than normal, and they dominate areas of Asia, central Africa, Europe, the southern United States, and southern Greenland.

NOAA also reports that global ocean surface temperatures for June are higher than ever recorded in more than a century of record-keeping, and its Coral Reef Watch group reports that Caribbean coral reefs are vulnerable to significant bleaching this year from thermal stress. The chart at right shows the Caribbean areas most vulnerable (click to enlarge).

The National Snow and Ice Data Center continues to track the summer melting of Arctic ice, and on July 22 reported that 2009 melting is now slightly more significant than last year, which was the second largest on record behind 2007. The light blue line on the chart below shows the area of remaining Arctic ice as of July 21. Ice has been disappearing at the rate of about 37,000 square miles a day in the first half of July.

Tikehau Atoll, French Polynesia

This dazzling image of the Tikehau Atoll in French Polynesia was posted as Picture of the Day by NASA Earth Observatory on July 14. The picture was taken by the Earth Observing One satellite (EO1.)

Secret Pictures of Arctic Ice Released

 

A large cache of secret U.S. government images showing arctic sea ice during the past decade has been released to the public after a request by the the National Research Council. The U.S. Geological Survey made these images available July 15 through the Global Fiducials Library. The library includes high-resolution satellite images of Barrow Alaska, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Arctic, Canadian Fram Strait, Chukchi Sea, and East Siberian Sea.

The imaging project began in the mid 1990s when environmental scientists teamed with the intelligence community to determine if satellites and airplanes typically used used for military intelligence could be used to gather environmental data. According to a report in Science News, the images could not be made public until a committee determined the images could be of scientific value.

Besides individual images, the library also includes several large side-by-side comparison posters showing ice loss trends at Barrow, the Beaufort Sea, Bering Glacier, and the South Cascade Glacier in Washington State. The image below shows ice conditions at Barrow, Alaska in July 2006 and 2007.

Millennium Island, Kiribati

Millennium Island was photographed on July 1, 2009 by astronauts in the International Space Station. Formerly named Caroline, this uninhabited island in the South Pacific at the end of the Line Island chain is part of the Republic of Kiribati.

After Kiribati moved the International Dateline in 1995, Caroline became the first land outpost where the sun would rise on the new millennium on January 1, 2000. The island was renamed to mark the occasion, and celebrants arrived to party and celebrate the arrival of the new year, century, and millennium. 

Whether the current Millennium began on January 1, 2000, or January 1, 2001 is another matter.

NASA Earth Observatory: Image of the Day, Millennium Island, Kiribati

Satellites Show Arctic Ice Thinner, Younger

Trend in Winter Sea Ice Volume: This obscure graphic from NASA show several things: 1.) Top sequence: The decline in red color shows a reduction in the amount of multiyear (MY) ice covering the Arctic Ocean in winter. The size of the red area has declined significantly from 2004 to 2008. 2.) The lower chart (black line) shows an average decline of 900 sq. km. per year in total area of ice cover over the same period. Most significantly, the steep slope of the red line in the lower graph shows the rapid loss of multiyear ice cover from 2004-2008. The rising blue line shows the increasing percentage of thin seasonal ice, or ice that appears in the fall and thaws the next summer. This juvenile ice now dominates.

 

Satellites are showing that the depth and age of Arctic sea ice is in significant decline. Multiyear winter ice has declined by more than 40 percent of its previous area in just five years from 2004 to 2008. Remaining multiyear ice also has thinned significantly, losing more than 0.6 meter depth in four years. Thin seasonal ice, ice less than a year old, has replaced multiyear ice as the dominant ice type covering the Arctic Ocean.

These results were reported July 7 by scientists from NASA Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) and the University of Washington and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, a publication of the American Geophysical Union (AGU.) This follows on July 6 ice loss reports for summer 2009 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and similar April reports from NSIDC showing the rise in seasonal ice cover over the Arctic Ocean.

These accelerating ice loss trends are significant in that they bode a year soon when all ice covering the Arctic Ocean melts in summertime. Some scientists have projected that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2015. 

NASA Top 10 Image: Ocean Sand, Bahamas

While poking around the NASA Earth Observatory website I came across a page for the the Top 10 Images of the Day. The Top 10 Images page is part of NASA Earth Observatory's 10th Anniversary celebration. The website began on April 29, 1999.

Ranked third among those "Top 10" images is Atafu Atoll, which has been among the most visited postings here at Signs From Earth. Perhaps more pictures and less writing are what the visitors seek...

Ranked second is this amazing 2002 satellite image (above) of sands in the Bahamas. From the description: "...Tides and ocean currents in the Bahamas sculpted the sand and seaweed beds into these multicolored, fluted patterns in much the same way that winds sculpted the vast sand dunes in the Sahara Desert.."

Profile (and Seas) Rise for "Climate Refugees"

 

Tulun Atoll in the low-lying Carteret Islands in the Pacific Ocean. Photo: NASA via Wikipedia.

The drowning Carteret Islands northeast of Papua New Guinea get the attention of The New York Times in an article "Refugees Join List of Climate-Change Issues," which also discusses the emerging awareness that hundreds of millions could lose their homes due to rising seas and other effects of climate change. 

..."There could be 200 million of these climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organization for Migration, depending on the degree of climate disturbances. Aside from the South Pacific, low-lying areas likely to be battered first include Bangladesh and nations in the Indian Ocean, where the leader of the Maldives has begun seeking a safe haven for his 300,000 people. Landlocked areas may also be affected; some experts call the Darfur region of Sudan, where nomads battle villagers in a war over shrinking natural resources, the first significant conflict linked to climate change...."

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The phrase "climate refugee" comes into increasing use, yet has no legal definition. Geoff Dabelko wrote in 2007 at The New Security Beat in the postiing, "A Word of Caution on Climate Change and “Refugees” that the word "refugee" is problematic when applied to being driven from one's place because of environmental conditions.

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"In order to achieve refugee status, people must be fleeing persecution or violence and must cross a national border," he said.  Dabelko continues that discussion here in the introduction to a new report from the Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program, where he is director. 

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A beacon, ECSP and its blog The New Security Beat continually explores the confluence of issues like population, water, ecosystems, resources and migration -- and their impact on security, economy, and society.

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As people increasingly are displaced from the accumulating catalog of climate impacts, perhaps we need to consider expanding the legal definition of refugee, or find new words to describe environment- and climate-driven flight from home. Right now no internationally accepted term exists for people moving because of environmental reasons, and according to the International Organization for Migration, the terms "environmental refugee" and "climate change refugee" have no basis in international refugee law. 

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So if not refugee, what now to call those driven elsewhere by the effects of human-induced climate change?

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Moving Geoengineering From the Shadows

 

Mount Pinatubo's 1991 eruption in the Phillippines injected sulfates into the atmosphere and cooled the earth. One geoengineering scheme would potentially replicate the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions. Photo: D. Harlow, USGS.

Would massive crop failures from heat waves and drought in the grain-growing regions of the American midwest be a sufficient reason to intentionally manipulate the atmosphere and cool the earth?

That was the opening question posed by Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution and Stanford during a recent panel discussion on geoengineering at the Aspen Environment Forum. (Disclosure: I helped organize the session and event.)

This question of "geoengineering" -- whether, when, and how to intentionally change earth's atmosphere -- is poised for more attention as the carbon pollution we unintentionally produce by burning coal and oil keeps rising. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, they trap more of the sun's reflected radiant energy near the earth and drive up land and ocean temperatures.

And as temperatures go up, droughts already seen in Australia's Murray-Darling basin, or heatwaves that hit Europe in 2003 likely will become the norm, according to scientists such as David Battisti and Rosamond Naylor. Their study published in SCIENCE this year examines the likelihood and potential impact of future heatwaves on food supply as carbon emissions and temperatures rise.

Jamas Cascio, a founder of worldchanging.org and now writing at Open the Future published in early 2009 a very readable and insightful short book on this subject, "Hacking the Earth: Understanding the Consequences of Geoengineering." Cascio lays out the choices and ethical implications of "geoengineering" the atmosphere to control planetary heating.

In theory, several options exist: shoot sulfate particles or millions of light-reflecting disks high into the atmosphere to block the sun; fertilize the oceans with iron to encourage carbon-absorbing phytoplankton blooms; plant millions of trees to absorb carbon; spray seawater into the sky to create heat-reflecting white clouds; and somehow capture and bury carbon already in the sky.

So what to do as our rising carbon emissions heat the planet? Is there any realistic large-scale way to cool earth, or stem the heating? Volcanic eruptions have, and a recent example is the Phillippines' Mount Pinatubo. In 1991 the volcano cooled the earth when its eruptions injected massive amounts of sulfates into the atmosphere, partially blocking the sun. 

Atafu Atoll, Tokelau, Southern Pacific Ocean

From NASA Earth Observatory, an awesome Image of the Day taken by the crew of the International Space Station: 

"At roughly eight kilometers wide, Atafu Atoll is the smallest of three atolls and one island (Nukunonu and Fakaofo Atolls to the southeast and Swains Island to the south are not shown) comprising the Tokelau Islands group located in the southern Pacific Ocean. 

"The political entity of Tokelau is currently a territory of New Zealand. In recent years, public referendums on independence within the islands have been held, but have not received sufficient support to move forward.

"The primary settlement on Atafu is a village located at the northwestern corner of the atoll—indicated by an area of light gray dots in this astronaut photograph. The typical ring shape of the atoll is the result of coral reefs building up around a former volcanic island...."

Young Ice Dominates Arctic Ocean

Credit: From the National Snow and Ice Data Center, courtesy J. Maslanik and C. Fowler, University of Colorado

Data released April 6 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that the age of ice in the Arctic Ocean is declining. Ice less than a year old dominates the Arctic ice cap as the melt season begins. 

The deep red color in the top right map shows the extent of multi-year ice, which has fallen to about 10 percent of the ice total according to NSIDC. The red color in the map at top left shows the average extent of multi-year ice for the period 1981-2000, when multi-year ice made up about 30 percent of the total. 

There has been a small uptick in the volume of ice 1-2 years old (orange color) and it is possible some of this juvenile ice and ice less than a year old could survive the summer melt season, thereby slowly adding to the stock of more hardy multi-year ice. Or it could not survive.

The melting of Arctic Ocean ice has increased in recent years. In the period from 1979 to 2005 about 20 percent of the ice cap melted in summer, but in summer of 2007 another 20 percent disappeared. Ice cap melting in 2008 was not as severe as in 2007, but last summer's melt still left the ocean with the second-lowest sea ice extent on record.

Implications from loss of Arctic Ocean ice in summer revolve around potential changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation. As the white-colored heat reflecting sea ice disappears, more dark heat-absorbing water dominates the ocean, causing even further water temperature increases. 

This unfolding change in Arctic Ocean ice cover could impact wind, weather, and precipitation patterns in northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live and depend on reliable supplies and timing of rainfall for drinking and the growing of food crops.

Washington Post: New Data Show Rapid Arctic Ice Decline

Wall Street Journal: Polar Ice Cap Shrinks Further and Thins

Incredible Shrinking Trophy Fish

Trophy fish caught on Key West charter boats in (a) 1957, (b) early 1980s and (c) 2007. From Monroe County Library

If you are not convinced that our overfishing of the seas is having an effect, look at the shrinking "trophy fish" of the Florida Keys.

Scripps Institution graduate student Loren McClenachan rounded up more than five decades worth of archival photographs of Florida Keys fish catches, and what she found showed a drastic decline in the size of "trophy fish" caught in the seas around Key West, Florida. 

Her analysis of photographs from the 1950s through 2007 showed that fish caught today are nearly 90 percent smaller in estimated weight than those caught in the 1950s. Her research, part of the emerging field of historical marine ecology, is being published by Conservation Biology.

McClenachan discovered a cache of historical images of nearly 1,300 fish in the Monroe County Library in Key West which gave her visual baseline fish size data for her analysis. 

These images showed fish on a hanging board next to the sport fishing passengers of the day who caught the fish.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography: Historical Photographs Expose Decline in Florida's Reef Fish

Abstract of Paper: Historical Photos Document Changing Reef Fish Communities 

Interview with Smithsonian Magazine editor who discusses McClenachan's work.